Predicting opera attendance based on operetta attendance : some initial empirical results

This research project models the segments of consumers of Gilbert and Sullivan operettas, from naive first-attendees through to expert and passionate "heavy users" of esoteric live opera, questioning the reality of the "progressive continuum" of opera involvement, and the mechanisms of transition through any continuum (in both directions). The particular research sub-project reported in this paper focused on recent consumers of operetta who had never been to an opera, and tried to identify the characteristics which distinguished best between those who said that they are likely to attend an opera and those who are less likely. Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing of 238 consumers of an operetta isolated 65 participants who had not been to the opera, 28 of whom were coded as being likely to go to an opera, while the remaining 37 participants were coded as unlikely to attend. The inability of the usual demographic and product usage variables to group participants, and the preponderance of simplistic, superficial responses to open-ended questioning, indicated that more sophisticated techniques are needed, both to elicit more meaningful and actionable data regarding motivation, and to test the likely influence of available marketing variables in inducing desired behaviour (both marketer-desired and consumer-beneficial behaviour).