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Reading house prices in Australian capital cities
conference contributionposted on 2011-01-01, 00:00 authored by Le MaLe Ma, Chunlu LiuChunlu Liu
House prices in the Australian capital cities have been increasing over the last two decades. An over 10% average annual increase arises in the capital cities. In Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, the house prices increased by more than 15% annually, while the house prices in Darwin increased by even higher at about 21%. It is surprising that, after a decrease in 2008, the house prices in the Australian capital cities show a strong recovery in their last financial year’s increase. How to read the house prices in cities across a country has been an issue of public interest since the late 1980s. Various models were developed to investigate the behaviours of house prices over time or space. A spatio-temporal model, introduced in recent literature, appears advantages in accounting for the spatial effects on house prices. However, the decay of temporal effects and temporal dynamics of the spatial effects cannot be addressed by the spatio-temporal model. This research will suggest a three-part decomposition framework in reading urban house price behaviours. Based on the spatio-temporal model, a time weighted spatio-temporal model is developed. This new model assumes that an urban house price movement should be decomposed by urban characterised factors, time correlated factors and space correlated factors. A time weighted is constructed to capture the temporal decay of the time correlated effects, while a spatio-temporal weight is constructed to account for the timevaried space correlated effects. The house prices of the Australian capital cities are investigated by using the time weighted spatio-temporal model. The empirical findings suggest that the housing markets should be clustered by their geographic locations. The rest parts of this paper are organised as follows. The following section will present a principle for reading urban house prices. The next section will outline the methodologies modelling the time weighted spatio-temporal model. The subsequent section will report the relative data and empirical results, while the final section will generate the conclusions.