Takeover deterrent effect of on-market share buyback

This study examines whether Australian firms use on-market share buybacks to deter unwanted takeover risk from the stock market. We found a statistically significant and positive relation between a firm’s ex-ante takeover probability and its on-market share buyback activities. The result is robust to alternative modelling techniques, namely TOBIT and Censored Quantile Regressions. This could be partly explained by Brown and O’day (2007) hypothesis on dividend payout, that in a non-classical taxation system like Australia, yield of share buyback is positively related to dividend payments. However on-market share buyback activity is closely related to temporary cash flows rather than permanent operating cash flows. This might indicate that besides dividend payments, Australian firms might take advantage of the financial flexibility of share buybacks to redistribute non-permanent cash flows to their shareholders.