Transport planning in a dynamic environment: an example of Gippsland, Victoria

Decision Makers in Gippsland are facing a complex and dynamic environment within a regional framework that is tied to Melbourne’s expansion and changing regional economics as employment shifts from Brown coal related industries to alternative areas of productivity. Increased agricultural production is one alternative yet farmers in Gippsland face changing markets and uncertainty as to the impact of changing climatic conditions. Gippsland’s leaders are proactively planning for future scenarios such that they can provide coordinated support to assist the community (and relevant to this paper, Farmers) in making sustainable business decisions. A key part of the regional environment is the transport system that links Gippsland to Australia and overseas markets. In order to be resilient and sustainable in agriculture a transport system needs to be developed that will underpin regional economic growth. This paper presents the beginning of a spreadsheet based sketch planning model that can be used by decision makers to evaluate the consequences of alternative transport infrastructure projects and how they can provide the region with a sustainable transport system that is flexible and responsive to uncertain agricultural futures. The transport model uses a traditional four step land-use transport model of trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and route assignment.