1453Mapping the prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence

Abstract Background Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a growing global health challenge disproportionately impacting low- and middle-income settings, including Ethiopia. Currently, the body of evidence describing the burden of NCDs is fragmented, inconsistent, health facility- or institution-based, and out-dated in Ethiopia. We conducted a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis of the prevalence of NCDs in community settings in Ethiopia. Review methodology Community-based quantitative studies published in English between 2012 and July 2020 that reported the prevalence of NCDs in Ethiopia were included. A systematic search of Medline, Embase, Scopus, CINHAL, and Global Health using pretested search terms related to NCDs was conducted, and data were extracted using a piloted data extraction proforma adapted from the Joanna Briggs Institute tool. Meta-analysis was performed using Stata 16. We measured the overall NCD prevalence using pooled odds ratios with 95% CIs. Pooled NCD prevalence was also computed and presented using forest plots. I2 was used to assess heterogeneity. Studies that did not fulfil the criteria for meta-analysis were narratively synthesised. Results Nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Four studies measured the prevalence of NCDs (all NCDs together), ranging from 29% to 35% (prevalence estimates not pooled). The pooled prevalence of Diabetes Mellites (DM) across ten studies was 5% (95% CI:4%−7%). Three studies each reported on the prevalence of undiagnosed DM (pooled prevalence 8%, 95% CI: 2%−14%) and pre-DM (pooled prevalence 12%, 95% CI:3%−21%). In a narrative analysis the prevalence of cardiovascular conditions ranged from 13.4% to 32.2% (n = 3 studies), cancer mortality ranged from 4% to 18% (n = 3 studies) and respiratory conditions ranged from 1% to 18% (n = 3 studies). Conclusion and recommendations Our analysis found that approximately one-third of Ethiopians have an NCD, with cardiovascular diseases the most common of all NCDs. The prevalence of respiratory conditions also appears high, but there are insufficient data for a pooled estimate. Whilst the prevalence of DM appears relatively low, there is evidence that the magnitude is increasing. Public health actions to address the high burden of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as the increasing magnitude of DM in Ethiopia, must be prioritised. Keywords: NCD, noncommunicable diseases, Ethiopia.