A Clinical Prediction Model for Personalised Emergency Department Discharge Decisions for Residential Care Facility Residents Post-Fall

Introduction: Falls are the leading cause of Emergency Department (ED) presentations among residents from residential aged care facilities (RACFs). While most current studies focus on post-fall evaluations and fall prevention, limited research has been conducted on decision-making in post-fall management. Objective: To develop and internally validate a model that can predict the likelihood of RACF residents being discharged from the ED after being presented for a fall. Methods: The study sample was obtained from a previous study conducted in Shepparton, Victoria, Australia. Consecutive samples were selected from January 2023 to November 2023. Participants aged 65 and over were included in this study. Results: A total of 261 fall presentations were initially identified. One patient with Australasian Triage Scale category 1 was excluded to avoid overfitting, leaving 260 presentations for analysis. Two logistic regression models were developed using prehospital and ED variables. The ED predictor model variables included duration of ED stay, injury severity, and the presence of an advance care directive (ACD). It demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUROC = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79–0.89) compared to the prehospital model (AUROC = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.72–0.83). A simplified four-variable Discharge Eligibility after Fall in Elderly Residents (DEFER) score was derived from the prehospital model. The score achieved an AUROC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71–0.82). At a cut-off score of ≥5, the DEFER score exhibited a sensitivity of 79.7%, a specificity of 60.3%, a diagnostic odds ratio of 5.96, and a positive predictive value of 85.0%. Conclusions: The DEFER score is the first validated discharge prediction model for residents of RACFs who present to the ED after a fall. Importantly, the DEFER score advances personalised medicine in emergency care by integrating patient-specific factors, such as ACDs, to guide individualised discharge decisions for post-fall residents from RACFs.