A novel flash P2P network traffic prediction algorithm based on ELMD and garch

To improve the quality of service and network performance for the Flash P2P video-on-demand, the prediction Flash P2P network traffic flow is beneficial for the control of the network video traffic. In this paper, a novel prediction algorithm to forecast the traffic rate of Flash P2P video is proposed. This algorithm is based on the combination of the ensemble local mean decomposition (ELMD) and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). The ELMD is used to decompose the original long-related flow into the summation of the short-related flow. Then, the GRACH is utilized to predict the short-related flow. The developed algorithm is tested in a university’s campus network. The predicted results show that our proposed method can further achieve higher accuracy than those obtained by existing algorithms, such as GARCH and Local Mean Decomposition and Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (LMD-GARCH) while keeping lower computational complexity.