A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates

Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.