A review of model-based scenario analysis of poverty for informing sustainability

Ending poverty in all its forms everywhere is the first global goal of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Poverty eradication is a long-term process that faces many uncertainties and complex interactions with other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In order to better understand poverty and contribute to addressing poverty and sustainability, this paper aims to conduct a systematic review of model-based poverty scenario analyses in the context of the SDGs. We first review 144 studies in terms of bibliometrics (i.e., publication types, research topics for poverty, research objects, research scales and geographic locations) and the characteristics and scope of the models and analyses (i.e., model types, purposes, states, temporal and spatial range, sectors considered, poverty and other SDGs indicators). Second, we discuss the pros and cons of different types of models and identify seven representative models. We also discuss the synergies and trade-offs between poverty and other SDGs. Finally, we identify four potential research gaps in model-based poverty scenario analysis and provide suggestions for future research. The review shows that poverty scenario analysis was carried out mainly from a single perspective, such as economic, ecological, and agricultural. Few studies used effective models to analyze poverty in an integrated analysis of interactions between multiple sectors. Comprehensive multi-sector models are needed for global and regional poverty scenario analysis over the medium- and long-term to enhance the understanding of combined effects, synergies, and trade-offs between poverty and other SDGs.