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An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

journal contribution
posted on 2006-07-01, 00:00 authored by Paresh Narayan, X Peng
This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

History

Journal

Journal of Chinese economic and business studies

Volume

4

Issue

2

Pagination

165 - 183

Publisher

Routledge

Location

London, England

ISSN

1476-5284

eISSN

1476-5292

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2006, Routledge

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