CT14
PREDICTING ONE‐YEAR SURVIVAL AFTER SURGERY FOR EARLY STAGE NON‐SMALL CELL LUNG CANCER

Introduction  Post‐operative survival after surgery for early stage non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is influenced by factors such as stage of disease and co‐morbidities. We sought to assess the performance of 2 models in predicting 1 year survival after resected NSCLC.Methods  The Colinet Simplified Co‐Morbidity Score (SCS) (1) and a prognostic model by Birim (2) were retrospectively applied to a cohort of patients with surgically resected NSCLC. End‐point was 1 year survival obtained from clinical follow‐up and data‐linkage with the Cancer Council of Victoria.Results  216 patients were treated from Feb 1999 to Dec 2005. 52 patients were excluded due to missing data, leaving 164 patients for analysis. Mean patient age was 66.4 ± 10.3. Pathological stage was 1 in 61%, 2 in19% and 3 in 17%. Observed 1 year survival was 78.7%.SCS was predictive of 1 year survival: mean SCS 9.24 for survivors and 11.03 for non‐survivors (p = 0.001 by t‐test). Patient’s with low SCS (0‐9) had a higher 1‐year survival than those with high SCS (>9); 87.2% vs 69.2% (p = 0.005 by chi‐square test). SCS discriminated fairly for 1 year survival (area under ROC curve 0.66).The predicted survival using the Birim model (74.2%) was similar to the observed survival (p = 0.43). The model predicted survival well in both low (predicted 83% vs observed 88%, p = 0.51) and high (66 vs 70%, p = 0.74) risk groups. Birim model discriminated well for 1 year survival (area under ROC curve 0.70).Conclusion  SCS and the Birim model can both be used to estimate 1‐year survival. They may aid the clinician in deciding who should be considered for surgical resection.