Childhood problem behaviours as precursors of drinking to intoxication trajectories - from age 1.5 to 19

OBJECTIVE: We examined behaviour problem precursors (i.e. internalising and externalising) in childhood (ages 1.5 to 8.5) and early adolescence (age 12.5) and consequences (i.e. harmful alcohol use) in emerging adulthood (age 19), of developmental trajectories of drinking to intoxication across adolescence (ages 14.5-19). DESIGN AND OUTCOME MEASURES: Data from 921 children and their parents followed for 18 years from the population-based Tracking Opportunities and Problems (TOPP) Study were used to examine adolescent trajectories of drinking to intoxication. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of trajectory group membership. RESULTS: We identified 3 trajectory classes: low / abstainer (41%), late onset high (31%) and early onset high (28%) using latent class analyses. Logistic regression analyses showed that childhood high externalising characterised early onset of intoxication vs. other classes, while early adolescence externalising discriminated both early and late onset of intoxication. High early childhood internalising characterised those consistently low or abstinent on alcohol intoxication, while early adolescent internalising characterised those having an early onset of intoxication. However, after additional adjustment for co-occurring externalising, there were no evidence for a link between early adolescent internalising and intoxication. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that both child and early adolescent-focused prevention efforts may be warranted.