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Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study

journal contribution
posted on 2023-07-17, 05:08 authored by Z Zeng, T Wu, Z Lin, L Luo, W Guan, J Liang, M Yu, P Guan, W He, Z Liu, G Lu, P Xie, C Chen, EHY Lau, Z Yang, C Hon, J He
China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (Rt) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.

History

Journal

Scientific Reports

Volume

12

Article number

21096

Pagination

21096-

Location

England

ISSN

2045-2322

eISSN

2045-2322

Language

en

Issue

1

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC