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Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004 : concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults

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journal contribution
posted on 2008-01-01, 00:00 authored by M O'Flaherty, E Ford, Steven AllenderSteven Allender, P Scarborough, S Capewell
Background: Trends in cardiovascular risk factors among UK adults present a complex picture. Ominous increases in obesity and diabetes among young adults raise concerns about subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in this group.

Objective: To examine recent trends in age-specific mortality rates from CHD, particularly those among younger adults.

Methods and results: Mortality data from 1984 to 2004 were used to calculate age-specific mortality rates for British adults aged 35+ years, and joinpoint regression was used to assess changes in trends. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 54.7% in men and by 48.3% in women. However, among men aged 35–44 years, CHD mortality rates in 2002 increased for the first time in over two decades. Furthermore, the recent declines in CHD mortality rates seem to be slowing in both men and women aged 45–54. Among older adults, however, mortality rates continued to decrease steadily throughout the period.

Conclusions: The flattening mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may represent a sentinel event. Deteriorations in medical management of CHD appear implausible. Thus, unfavourable trends in risk factors for CHD, specifically obesity and diabetes, provide the most likely explanation for the observed trends.

History

Journal

Heart

Volume

94

Pagination

178 - 181

Location

[London, UK]

Open access

  • Yes

ISSN

1355-6037

eISSN

1468-201X

Language

eng

Notes

This article has been published in the BMJ, O'Flaherty, M., Ford, E., Allender, Steven, Scarborough, Peter and Capewell, Simon 2008, Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004 : concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults, Heart, vol. 94, no. 2, pp. 178-181, and can also be viewed on the journal’s website at www.bmj.com

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2008, BMJ Publishing Group Ltd & British Cardiovascular Society

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