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Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001 : empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis

journal contribution
posted on 2006-01-01, 00:00 authored by Paresh Narayan
This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long-run and short-run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom-position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.

History

Journal

Asian economic journal

Volume

20

Issue

4

Pagination

393 - 407

Publisher

Wiley Blackwell Publishing Asia

Location

Carlton, Vic.

ISSN

1351-3958

eISSN

1467-8381

Language

eng

Notes

Published Online: 14 Dec 2006

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

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