Development of regional production areas in a changing climate: a case study of Gippsland, Australia

Increased global demand for agricultural production is being driven, in particular, by the rising middle class in the Asia-Pacific geo-region. The significant role of natural resource-based industries, especially agriculture, in the development of non-metropolitan regions is again being recognised. In this context, this article describes a spatial analysis approach to agricultural development based on the development of Production Areas (PAs) in regional/rural economies. PAs are spatial units within regions selected for the intensive sustainable development of agriculture (including forestry, agro-forestry and bio-energy), their associated activities and underpinning infrastructure. A case study in a resource-based region in Australia—Gippsland – explains the approach. This is informed by the eco-economy model of endogenous regional/rural development, which addresses the links between novel co-production and consumption networks. The methodology for the identification and analysis of PAs has, at its core, Land Suitability Analyses of those agricultural commodities currently cultivated in the region and those that could be grown in future climates. The use of GIS enables us to overlay and analyse several constraints (e.g. flood erosion and salinity risk) and resources (e.g. water and transport) to define PAs and the available land within each of them. The approach is further illustrated by focusing in one PA—Macalister, an irrigated dairy production area where recent dry climatic conditions caused a substantial decline in water resources. Key elements for the sustainable development of this PA are outlined including construction of Blue-Green Infrastructure. Comments on the approach and the need for strategic long-term planning concludes the article.