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Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014

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journal contribution
posted on 2015-01-01, 00:00 authored by Robin J Evans, Musa MammadovMusa Mammadov
This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.

History

Journal

F1000research

Volume

3

Article number

319

Pagination

1-12

Location

London, Eng.

Open access

  • Yes

ISSN

2046-1402

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2015, Evans RJ and Mammadov M

Publisher

F1000Research