Estimation of temperature alterations in the wheat and barley crop cycle for the year 2050 in Guarapuava, Parana - Brazil

Climate change is one of the major challenges for agriculture, it is becoming more imperative to anticipate the likely impacts caused by temperature changes in regional and rural planning. This article aims to evaluate the effects of the average temperature changes in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios, for the cultivation period of the wheat and barley crops in the municipality of Guarapuava, Paraná. For the study were used the IPCC models (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (report 2014)) and determining a base scenario for the period of years between 1970-2000 with local climatic data and coming from WorldClim (Global Climate Data). It was verified that within the area of 3 178.6 km² there will be an increase in temperature for the period considered, and the minimum values of increase of the average temperature may vary between 2.4 and 4.5% considering the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.