Evaluating environmental, demographic and genetic effects on population-level survival in an island endemic

The population dynamics of island species are considered particularly sensitive to variation in environmental, demographic and/or genetic processes. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate the relative importance of these processes for key vital rates in island endemics. We integrated the results of long-term capture–mark–recapture analysis, prey surveys, habitat quality assessments and molecular analysis to determine the causes of variation in the survival rates of Komodo dragons Varanus komodoensis at 10 sites on four islands in Komodo National Park, Indonesia. Using open population capture–mark–recapture methods, we ranked competing models that considered environmental, ecological, genetic and demographic effects on site-specific Komodo dragon survival rates. Site-specific survival rates ranged from 0.49 (95% CI: 0.33–0.68) to 0.92 (0.79–0.97) in the 10 study sites. The three highest-ranked models (i.e. ΔQAICc  2) explained ∼70% of variation in Komodo dragon survival rates and identified interactions between inbreeding coefficients, prey biomass density and habitat quality as important explanatory variables. There was evidence of additive effects from ecological and genetic (e.g. inbreeding) processes affecting Komodo dragon survival rates. Our results indicate that maintaining high ungulate prey biomass and habitat quality would enhance the persistence of Komodo dragon populations. Assisted gene flow may also increase the genetic and demographic viability of the smaller Komodo dragon populations.