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Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries

journal contribution
posted on 2008-06-01, 00:00 authored by Paresh Narayan
Testing the integrational properties of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy, for if visitor arrivals are integrated of order one (nonstationary) then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are found to be integrated or order zero (stationary) then this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this paper we examine whether visitor arrivals to Australia are stationary or nonstationary, using the recently developed univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier tests, and the Im, Pesaran and Shin [Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 1997. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Manuscript, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge; Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74] panel t-test. Our exercise involves Australia’s 28 tourist source markets. Our main findings are: (1) that visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 tourist source markets are stationary, implying that any shock will have only a temporary effect and (2) the second structural break, which mainly coincides with the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Asian financial crisis, has slowed down the growth rate in visitor arrivals to Australia from 22 out of 28 (79%) of the tourism source markets.

History

Journal

Transportation research, Part A : policy and practice

Volume

42

Issue

5

Pagination

751 - 761

Publisher

Elsevier

Location

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

ISSN

0965-8564

eISSN

1879-2375

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2008, Elsevier