Floods, bushfires and sectoral economic output in Australia, 1978–2014

Using state-level annual variation in natural disasters and economic output in Australia, we estimate the direct effects of floods and bushfires on sectoral gross value added during the period 1978–2014. We find that floods exert an adverse and persistent effect on the outputs of agriculture, mining, construction and financial services sectors. For example, our estimates indicate that a state that experienced a flood in a given year encountered, on average, 5–6 per cent lower agricultural output in both that year and the following year, compared to another state with no such flood experience. Sectoral responses to bushfires are more nuanced.