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Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)

journal contribution
posted on 1997-03-01, 00:00 authored by E Ong, Philip Taylor, R Knox
In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.

History

Journal

Aerobiologia

Volume

13

Issue

1

Pagination

43 - 48

Publisher

Springer Netherlands

Location

Dordrecht , The Netherlands

ISSN

0393-5965

eISSN

1573-3025

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

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