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Frequent policy uncertainty can negate the benefits of forest conservation policy

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journal contribution
posted on 2018-11-01, 00:00 authored by B A Simmons, R Marcos-Martinez, E A Law, Brett BryanBrett Bryan, K A Wilson
© 2018 The Authors Policy-driven shifts from net deforestation to forest expansion are being stimulated by increasing social preferences for forest ecosystem services. However, policy uncertainty can disrupt or reverse the positive effects of forest transitions. For instance, if the loss of remnant (primary) forest continues, the ecological benefits of net forest gains may be small. We investigated how peak periods of uncertainty in forest conservation policy affected forest transition outcomes in Queensland, Australia, as well as a globally-relevant biodiversity hotspot in the state, the Brigalow Belt South (BBS) bioregion. Political, socioeconomic, and biophysical factors associated with net forest cover change and remnant forest loss from 1991 to 2014 were identified through spatial longitudinal analysis. This informed a Bayesian structural causal impact assessment of command-and-control regulation and policy uncertainty on remnant and non-remnant forest cover. The results indicate that forest cover was negatively influenced by increasing temperatures, food prices, and policy uncertainty, and positively influenced by strengthening regulation. Regulation during 2007–2014 avoided 68,620 ± 19,214 km2of deforestation (with 18,969 ± 10,340 km2of this in remnant forests) throughout Queensland, but was ineffective on remnant forests in the BBS. For state-wide remnant forests, perverse effects from policy uncertainty (e.g. pre-emptive deforestation) were strong enough to negate regulatory impacts. This study reveals a cautionary tale for conservation policy: despite strict environmental regulations, forest transition can be delayed (or reversed) when political inconsistency or instability provoke unintended reactions from landholders.

History

Journal

Environmental science and policy

Volume

89

Pagination

401 - 411

Publisher

Elsevier

Location

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

ISSN

1462-9011

eISSN

1873-6416

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2018, The Authors