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Health burden of hip and other fractures in Australia beyond 2000
journal contribution
posted on 1999-05-17, 00:00 authored by K Sanders, G Nicholson, A Ugoni, Julie PascoJulie Pasco, E Seeman, Mark KotowiczMark KotowiczObjective: To calculate the expected increase in the number of fractures in adults attributable to the predicted increase in the number of elderly Australians.
Data sources: All fractures in adult residents (> 35 years) of the Barwon Statistical Division (total population, 218 000) were identified from radiological reports from February 1994 to February 1996. The Australian Bureau of Statistics supplied predictions of Australia's population (1996 to 2051).
Main outcome measure: The projected annual number of fractures in Australian adults up to 2051 (based on stable rates of fracture in each age group).
Results: The number of fractures per year is projected to increase 25% from 1996 to 2006 (from 83 000 fractures to 104 000). Hip fractures are projected to increase 36% (from 15 000 to 21 000) because of a substantial rise in the number of elderly aged 85 years and over. Hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and increase fourfold by 2051.
Conclusions: In contrast to Europe and North America, where numbers of hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and then stabilise, in Australia hip fractures will continue to place a growing demand on healthcare resources for many decades. These projections can be used for setting goals and evaluating the costs and benefits of interventions in Australia.
Data sources: All fractures in adult residents (> 35 years) of the Barwon Statistical Division (total population, 218 000) were identified from radiological reports from February 1994 to February 1996. The Australian Bureau of Statistics supplied predictions of Australia's population (1996 to 2051).
Main outcome measure: The projected annual number of fractures in Australian adults up to 2051 (based on stable rates of fracture in each age group).
Results: The number of fractures per year is projected to increase 25% from 1996 to 2006 (from 83 000 fractures to 104 000). Hip fractures are projected to increase 36% (from 15 000 to 21 000) because of a substantial rise in the number of elderly aged 85 years and over. Hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and increase fourfold by 2051.
Conclusions: In contrast to Europe and North America, where numbers of hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and then stabilise, in Australia hip fractures will continue to place a growing demand on healthcare resources for many decades. These projections can be used for setting goals and evaluating the costs and benefits of interventions in Australia.
History
Journal
Medical journal of AustraliaVolume
170Issue
10Pagination
467 - 470Publisher
Australasian Medical Publishing CompanyLocation
Sydney, N.S.W.ISSN
0025-729XeISSN
1326-5377Language
engPublication classification
C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
1999, Australasian Medical Publishing CompanyUsage metrics
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