Initiation of trades on the Chinese stock market

The flow of orders from buyers and sellers, relative to past returns and stock characteristics, was examined in the Chinese stock market. Order imbalance (the gap between buyer- and seller-initiated trades) was found to be negatively related to long term returns. Turn of the calendar year trading provided strong indications of tax-motivated trading as well as support for the flight-to-quality hypothesis, which suggests selling in response to perceived increases in market risk.