Jail up; crime down does not justify Australia becoming an incarceration nation

The imprisonment rate in Australia is at unprecedented high levels, both in terms of actual prisoner numbers and the rate at which it is increasing. For the first time in recorded history the incarceration rate in Australia has more than doubled in less than 25 years. Prison is the harshest form of punishment in our system of justice and imposes considerable hardship on offenders. It also comes at a considerable financial cost to the community. Accordingly, the surge in prisoner numbers is a significant macro social, economic and legal development. The increase did not occur pursuant to an overarching strategic plan and is an area that is under-researched. The prison population increase has arisen as a result of a ‘tough on crime’ approach that continues without any sign of abatement. The use of imprisonment should only be increased if there is a demonstrable benefit to the community. This article examines whether there is a sound rationale behind the rising trend in prison numbers. The increasing incarceration rate has coincided with a significant reduction in the crime rate. A causal connection between the two events (increased prisoner numbers and reduced crime) could constitute a powerful argument in favour of the surge in prison numbers. However, an examination of the empirical data in Australia fails to demonstrate even a tenable link between these events. We also conclude that at the theoretical level there is no rationale for the increased use of imprisonment. If the imprisonment rate continues to rise, there is a risk of a prison and financial crisis similar to that currently being experienced in the United States, which has resulted in an extreme counter-reaction in the form of a retrospective reduction of some prison terms.