Non-equivalence of direct and indirect measures of unrealistic optimism

Individuals typically believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events. Such “unrealistic optimism” (UO) has been assessed in two ways: directly (via a single question, requiring comparison of own risk to that of the average person) and indirectly (via separate questions about own risk and that of the average person). The study examined the equivalence of the direct and indirect measures of female students' UO for unwanted pregnancy. Participants (N = 120) answered questions about their own risk, that of the average female student, and their own risk relative to that of the average female student; responses and response times were recorded. There was only a moderate association between direct- and indirect-UO. Direct-UO was strongly associated with estimate of own risk, but only moderately associated with estimate of the average student's risk. Response times for the comparative risk and own risk questions did not differ, but participants took significantly longer to answer the question about average student's risk. The results suggest that the two measures of UO are not equivalent, but, rather, that individuals answering a comparative risk question focus mainly on their own risk, at the expense of that of the average person.