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Overview of risk prediction models in cardiovascular disease research

journal contribution
posted on 2009-10-01, 00:00 authored by Jisheng Cui
Many risk prediction models have been developed for cardiovascular diseases in different countries during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an established risk prediction model. Researchers often use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has serious limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker in clinical and epidemiological studies. To overcome the shortcomings of this traditional method, new assessment methods have been proposed. The aim of this article is to overview various risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, to describe the receiver operating characteristic curve method and discuss some new assessment methods proposed recently. Some of the methods were illustrated with figures from a cardiovascular disease study in Australia.

History

Journal

Annals of epidemiology

Volume

19

Issue

10

Pagination

711 - 717

Publisher

Elsevier Inc.

Location

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

ISSN

1047-2797

eISSN

1873-2585

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2009, Elsevier Inc.

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