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Predicting Australian stock market index using neural networks exploiting dynamical swings and intermarket influences

journal contribution
posted on 2005-02-09, 00:00 authored by H Pan, C Tilakaratne, John YearwoodJohn Yearwood
This paper presents a computational approach for predicting the Australian stock market index - AORD using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks from the time series data of AORD and various interrelated markets. This effort aims to discover an effective neural network or a set of adaptive neural networks for this prediction purpose, which can exploit or model various dynamical swings and inter-market influences discovered from professional technical analysis and quantitative analysis. Within a limited range defined by our empirical knowledge, three aspects of effectiveness on data selection are considered: effective inputs from the target market (AORD) itself, a sufficient set of interrelated markets, and effective inputs from the interrelated markets. Two traditional dimensions of the neural network architecture are also considered: the optimal number of hidden layers, and the optimal number of hidden neurons for each hidden layer. Three important results were obtained: A 6-day cycle was discovered in the Australian stock market during the studied period; the time signature used as additional inputs provides useful information; and a basic neural network using six daily returns of AORD and one daily returns of SP500 plus the day of the week as inputs exhibits up to 80% directional prediction correctness. stock market prediction, financial time series, neural networks, feature selection, correlation, variance reduction, overtraining.

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Journal

Journal of research and practice in information technology

Volume

37

Issue

1

Pagination

43 - 54

Publisher

Australian Computer Society

ISSN

1443-458X

Language

eng

Publication classification

CN.1 Other journal article

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