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Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model

Version 2 2024-06-06, 08:35
Version 1 2017-07-27, 11:40
journal contribution
posted on 2024-06-06, 08:35 authored by Andrea DriscollAndrea Driscoll, EH Barnes, S Blankenberg, DM Colquhoun, D Hunt, PJ Nestel, RA Stewart, MJ West, HD White, J Simes, A Tonkin
BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. METHODS: A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <5% to >20%. RESULTS: Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m(2), LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. CONCLUSION: Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events.

History

Journal

International Journal of Cardiology

Volume

248

Pagination

361-368

Location

Netherlands

ISSN

0167-5273

eISSN

1874-1754

Language

English

Publication classification

C Journal article, C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2017, Elsevier B.V.

Publisher

ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD