Probabilistic modelling of the deterioration of reinforced concrete port infrastructure

Port infrastructure is vulnerable to the corrosive marine environment leading to deterioration, loss of functionality, delays in shipping, major maintenance, remediation and, in the worst cases, loss of structural integrity and consequent replacement of the asset. Despite this, asset managers are unable to adequately plan for the prevention and minimisation of maintenance due to a lack of reliable predictive tools, that simulate the deterioration and a lack of a lifecycle model incorporating protection/maintenance options. This paper reports on a project to develop such a tool to facilitate the probabilistic modelling of the deterioration of reinforced concrete elements from construction through onset of corrosion to subsequent cracking and spalling. The Australian government funded project is in collaboration with several port authorities. The study has narrowed the key factors that have the most impact on the estimation of corrosion initiation and damage propagation allowing better definition of what data should be collected, how much and levels of accuracy required to ensure that predictive outputs obtained are as ‘robust’ as possible.