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Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change
journal contribution
posted on 2019-06-01, 00:00 authored by R Marcos-Martinez, Brett BryanBrett Bryan, K A Schwabe, J D Connor, E A Law, M Nolan, J J SánchezForest cover gains and losses occur in response to complex environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Yet the impact of forest gains and losses on the provision of ecosystem services differs markedly. Here we investigate the social costs of potential forest carbon change in Australia's intensive agricultural region from 2015 to 2050 using spatial forest cover change and forest carbon models combined with climate and socioeconomic projections. More than 24,000 possible scenarios were used to identify the trend and lower and upper bounds of forest cover/carbon change. Net deforestation (3.5 million hectares, Mha)under the lower bound forest cover (LBFC)projection was around one-third less than net reforestation (4.8 Mha)under the upper bound forest cover (UBFC)projection by 2030. However, the CO 2 emissions (1.3 Gigatons of CO 2 , GtCO 2 )from deforestation were more than double the sequestration (0.5 GtCO 2 )from reforestation. The social costs (up to 134 billion dollars)of the LBFC were almost five times the benefits of the UBFC (up to 28 billion dollars). The asymmetry decreased over time but persisted to 2050. This shows the markedly different social costs of potential forest carbon losses and gains under global change, evidence which can be useful to policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners.
History
Journal
Ecosystem servicesVolume
37Article number
100935Pagination
1 - 10Publisher
ElsevierLocation
Amsterdam, The NetherlandsPublisher DOI
ISSN
2212-0416Language
engPublication classification
C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2019, Elsevier B.V.Usage metrics
Categories
Keywords
Forest cover changeCarbon sequestrationDeforestationClimate changeAustraliaAgricultural expansionScience & TechnologyLife Sciences & BiomedicineEcologyEnvironmental SciencesEnvironmental StudiesEnvironmental Sciences & EcologyLAND-USE CHANGEECOSYSTEM SERVICESCLIMATE-CHANGEAGRICULTURAL LANDCONSERVATIONBIODIVERSITYIMPACTSPOLICYConservation and Biodiversity
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