ritchie-quantifyingextinctionrisk-2018.pdf (417.72 kB)
Quantifying extinction risk and forecasting the number of impending Australian bird and mammal extinctions
journal contribution
posted on 2018-04-20, 00:00 authored by Hayley Geyle, J C Z Woinarski, G B Baker, C R Dickman, G Dutson, D O Fisher, H Ford, M Holdsworth, M E Jones, A Kutt, S Legge, I Leiper, R Lyon, B P Murphy, P Menkhorst, A E Reside, Euan RitchieEuan Ritchie, F E Roberts, R Tingley, S T GarnettA critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species at highest risk, while implementing protective measures to reduce the risk of extinction to such species. Existing global processes provide a graded categorisation of extinction risk. Here we seek to extend and complement those processes to focus more narrowly
on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we CSIRO PUBLISHING
Pacific Conservation Biology, 2018, 24, 157–167
https://doi.org/10.1071/PC18006
Journal compilation CSIRO 2018 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND www.publish.csiro.au/journals/pcb
estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our
tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement
among methods for which species were most in danger – highlighting the importance of integrating multiple approaches
when considering extinction risk. Mapped distributions of the 20 most imperilled birds reveal that most are endemic to
islands or occur in southern Australia. The 20 most imperilled mammals occur mostly in northern and central Australia.
While there were some differences in the forecasted number of extinctions in the next 20 years among methods, all three
approaches predict further species loss. Overall, we estimate that another seven Australian mammals and 10 Australian
birds will be extinct by 2038 unless management improves.
on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we CSIRO PUBLISHING
Pacific Conservation Biology, 2018, 24, 157–167
https://doi.org/10.1071/PC18006
Journal compilation CSIRO 2018 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND www.publish.csiro.au/journals/pcb
estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our
tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement
among methods for which species were most in danger – highlighting the importance of integrating multiple approaches
when considering extinction risk. Mapped distributions of the 20 most imperilled birds reveal that most are endemic to
islands or occur in southern Australia. The 20 most imperilled mammals occur mostly in northern and central Australia.
While there were some differences in the forecasted number of extinctions in the next 20 years among methods, all three
approaches predict further species loss. Overall, we estimate that another seven Australian mammals and 10 Australian
birds will be extinct by 2038 unless management improves.
