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Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production

journal contribution
posted on 2007-11-01, 00:00 authored by Q Luo, W Bellotti, M Williams, I Cooper, Brett BryanBrett Bryan
This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required.

History

Journal

Climatic change

Volume

85

Pagination

89-101

Location

Berlin, Germany

ISSN

0165-0009

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2007, Springer

Issue

1-2

Publisher

Springer

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