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Savings behaviour in Fiji : an empirical assessment using the ARDL approach to cointegration

journal contribution
posted on 2006-01-01, 00:00 authored by Paresh Narayan, S Narayan
Purpose – This paper aims to delineate the short- and long-run relationships between savings, real interest rate, income, current account deficits (CADs) and age dependency ratio in Fiji using cointegration and error correction models over the period 1968-2000.

Design/methodology/approach – The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration is used, which is applicable irrespective of whether the underlying variables are integrated of order one or order zero. Given the small sample size in this study, appropriate critical values were extracted from Narayan. To estimate the short- and long-run elasticities, the autoregressive distributed-lag model is used.

Findings – In the short- and long-run: a 1 per cent increase in growth rate increases savings by over 0.07 and 0.5 per cent, respectively; a 1 per cent increase in the CAD reduces savings rate by 0.01 and 0.02 per cent, respectively; and the negative coefficient on the real interest rate implies that the income effect dominates the substitution effect, while in the short-run the total effect of the real interest rate is positive, implying that the substitution effect dominates the income effect.

Originality/value – This paper makes the first attempt at estimating the savings function for the Fiji Islands. Given that Fiji's capital market is poorly developed, the empirical findings here have direct policy relevance.

History

Journal

International journal of social economics

Volume

33

Issue

7

Pagination

468 - 480

Publisher

Emerald

Location

Bingley, England

ISSN

0306-8293

eISSN

1758-6712

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2006, Emerald Group Publishing Ltd

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