Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making

The Pastoral Properties Futures Simulator (PPFS) is a dynamic systems model, developed within a participatory action research partnership with the pastoral industry of Australia's Northern Territory. The model was purpose-built to support the industry's strategic planning capacity in the face of environmental, market and institutional uncertainty. The mediated modelling process sought to maximise social learning of industry stakeholders. Simulations were conducted using scenarios representing combinations of climatic, market, institutional and technological assumptions. Stochastic parameters included rainfall and product prices. Economic and environmental performance of model farms, including greenhouse gas emissions, were estimated. A critical evaluation of the tool finds the PPFS fit for purpose. However, limitations include lack of output validation, small number of scenarios and simplistic treatment of environmental impact dimensions. With further development, the PPFS can provide a platform (a) to assist with industry planning across the whole of Northern Australia and beyond, and (b) for policy analysis and development in the context of the Australian pastoral industry. © 2014 The Authors.