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Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

journal contribution
posted on 2007-04-01, 00:00 authored by C Rachmatullah, L Aye, Robert Fuller
The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenario considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period if the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 .

History

Journal

Energy policy

Volume

35

Issue

4

Pagination

2352 - 2359

Publisher

Elsevier

Location

London, Eng.

ISSN

0301-4215

eISSN

1873-6777

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2006, Crown Copyright

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