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Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change

journal contribution
posted on 2017-06-01, 00:00 authored by M J Martinez-Harms, Brett BryanBrett Bryan, E Figueroa, P Pliscoff, R K Runting, K A Wilson
Scenarios provide a platform to explore the provision of ecosystem services under global change. Despite their relevance to land-use policy, there is a paucity of such assessments, particularly in developing countries. Central Chile provides a good example from the Latin American realm as the region has experienced rapid transformation from natural landscapes to urbanization and agricultural development. Local experts from Central Chile identified climate change, urbanization, and fire regimes as key drivers of change. Scenarios depicting plausible future trajectories of change were developed to assess the combined effects on carbon storage, wine production, and scenic beauty for the year 2050. Across the region, the action of the drivers reduced the total amount of carbon storage (by 85%) and wine production (by 52%) compared with a baseline scenario, with minor changes incurred for scenic beauty. The carbon storage and wine production had declined by 90% and scenic beauty by 28% when the reaction to changed fire regimes was also taken into account. The cumulative outcomes of climate change and urbanization are likely to place substantial pressures on ecosystem services in Central Chile by mid-century, revealing the need for stronger planning regulations to manage land-use change.

History

Journal

Ecosystem services

Volume

25

Pagination

56 - 68

Publisher

Elsevier

Location

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

ISSN

2212-0416

Language

eng

Publication classification

C Journal article; C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2017, Elsevier