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Spatial analysis of environmental change impacts on wheat production in Mid-Lower North, South Australia

journal contribution
posted on 2005-09-01, 00:00 authored by Q Luo, Brett BryanBrett Bryan, W Bellotti, M Williams
Three environmental change scenarios (the best scenario, the most likely scenario and the worst scenario) were used by the APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator) Wheat module to study the possible impacts of future environmental change (climate change plus pCO 2 change) on wheat production in the Mid-Lower North of South Australia. GIS software was used to manage spatial-climate data and spatial-soil data and to present the results. Study results show that grain yield (kg ha -1 ) was adversely affected under the worst environmental change scenario (-100% ∼ -42%) and the most likely environmental change scenario (-58% ∼ -3%). Grain nitrogen content (% N) either increased or decreased depending on the environmental change scenarios used and climate divisions (-25% ∼ +42%). Spatial variability was found for projected impact outcomes within climate divisions indicating the necessity of including the spatial distribution of soil properties in impact assessment.

History

Journal

Climatic change

Volume

72

Pagination

213-228

Location

Dordrecht, The Netherlands

ISSN

0165-0009

eISSN

1573-1480

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2005, Springer

Issue

1-2

Publisher

Kluwer Academic Publishers

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