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Spatial analysis of environmental change impacts on wheat production in Mid-Lower North, South Australia
journal contribution
posted on 2005-09-01, 00:00 authored by Q Luo, Brett BryanBrett Bryan, W Bellotti, M WilliamsThree environmental change scenarios (the best scenario, the most likely scenario and the worst scenario) were used by the APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator) Wheat module to study the possible impacts of future environmental change (climate change plus pCO 2 change) on wheat production in the Mid-Lower North of South Australia. GIS software was used to manage spatial-climate data and spatial-soil data and to present the results. Study results show that grain yield (kg ha -1 ) was adversely affected under the worst environmental change scenario (-100% ∼ -42%) and the most likely environmental change scenario (-58% ∼ -3%). Grain nitrogen content (% N) either increased or decreased depending on the environmental change scenarios used and climate divisions (-25% ∼ +42%). Spatial variability was found for projected impact outcomes within climate divisions indicating the necessity of including the spatial distribution of soil properties in impact assessment.
History
Journal
Climatic changeVolume
72Issue
1-2Pagination
213 - 228Publisher
Kluwer Academic PublishersLocation
Dordrecht, The NetherlandsPublisher DOI
ISSN
0165-0009eISSN
1573-1480Language
engPublication classification
C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2005, SpringerUsage metrics
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No categories selectedKeywords
Agricultural Production System sIMulatorenvironmental change scenariosfuture environmental changewheat productionMid-Lower North of South AustraliaScience & TechnologyLife Sciences & BiomedicinePhysical SciencesEnvironmental SciencesMeteorology & Atmospheric SciencesEnvironmental Sciences & EcologyCLIMATE-CHANGEAGRICULTURE
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