sharma-theroleofpalmoilprice-2020.pdf (322.69 kB)
The role of palm oil price in Indonesia's aggregate demand
This study examines the predictability of Indonesia’s aggregate demand using palm oil price. We conduct both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting evaluations. These evaluations are based on time-series quarterly and monthly data frequencies and cover three different forecasting horizons. Overall, we find that palm oil price predicts real GDP, consumption expenditure, total investment, net spending from overseas, while predictability of government spending is sensitive to the use of forecasting approaches and horizons.
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Journal
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan PerbankanVolume
23Issue
2Pagination
161 - 178Publisher
Bank Indonesia, Central Banking Research DepartmentLocation
Jakarta, IndonesiaPublisher DOI
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ISSN
1410-8046eISSN
2460-9196Language
engPublication classification
C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal; C Journal articleUsage metrics
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