The role of rice in poverty dynamics in rural Vietnam: 2002–2008

Using the Vietnamese Household Living Standards Surveys of 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008, this paper investigates the role of rice in poverty dynamics in the recent context of Vietnam. We find that sizeable changes in rice prices in the 2000s, which were driven largely by the country's integration into the world markets, have not helped rural households escape poverty, even for households with large-scale rice production. Our results also document that changes in rice output and productivity did not help mitigate poverty either. The paper provides evidence to explain why a substantial exogenous increase in the rice prices between 2006 and 2008 did not help rural households to move out of poverty, while similar changes did help in the 1990s.