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Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?
journal contribution
posted on 2020-09-18, 00:00 authored by Jakob B Madsen, Md Rabiul Islam, Xueli TangXueli TangThe fertility transition that took place in the West from approximately the 1870s to the 1970s is often suggested to have been instrumental for the shift from the post-Malthusian growth regime to the modern growth regime. Constructing a unique data set over the period 1820–2015 for 21 advanced countries, this paper tests whether fertility has had real economic effects through the channels of education, saving, investment and female labor force participation rates. The dairy-cereal price ratio and the pastoral-land ratio are used as instruments for fertility. The results indicate that the fertility transition has been a significant contributor to growth since the 1880s and, consequently, was pivotal for the transition to the modern growth regime.
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Journal
Journal of Economic GrowthPublisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLCLocation
New York, N.Y.Publisher DOI
ISSN
1381-4338eISSN
1573-7020Language
engPublication classification
C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal; C Journal articleCopyright notice
2020, Springer Science+Business MediaUsage metrics
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