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Y Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

journal contribution
posted on 2023-02-16, 04:53 authored by Laura Bravo, Dmitri Nepogodiev, James C Glasbey, Elizabeth Li, Joana FF Simoes, Sivesh K Kamarajah, Maria Picciochi, Tom EF Abbott, Adesoji O Ademuyiwa, Alexis P Arnaud, Arnav Agarwal, Amanpreet Brar, Muhammed Elhadi, Dennis Mazingi, Victor Roth Cardoso, Samuel Lawday, Raza Sayyed, Omar M Omar, Antonio Ramos de la Madina, Luke Slater, Mary Venn, Georgios Gkoutos, Aneel Bhangu, Andreas Karwath, Kwabena Siaw-Acheampong, Leah Argus, Daoud Chaudhry, Brett E Dawson, Rohan R Gujjuri, Conor S Jones, Chetan Khatri, James M Keatley, Harvinder Mann, Ella J Marson, Kenneth A Mclean, Elliott H Taylor, Abhinav Tiwari, Isobel M Trout, Mary L Venn, Richard JW Wilkin, Irida Dajti, Arben Gjata, Luis Boccalatte, Maria Marta Modolo, Daniel Cox, Peter Pockney, Philip Townend, Felix Aigner, Irmgard Kronberger, Kamral Hossain, Gabrielle VanRamshorst, Ismail Lawani, Gustavo Ataide, Glauco Baiocchi, Igor Buarque, Muhammad Gohar, Mihail Slavchev, Janet Martin, Maricarmen Olivos, Jose Calvache, Carlos Jose Perez Rivera, Ana Danic Hadzibegovic, Tomislav Kopjar, Jakov Mihanovic, Jaroslav Klat, Rene Novysedlak, Peter Christensen, Alaa El-Hussuna, Sylvia Batista, Eddy Lincango, Sameh H Emile, Mengistu Gebreyohanes Mengesha, Samuel Hailu, Hailu Tamiru, Joonas Kauppila, Johanna Laukkarinen, Alexis Arnaud, Markus Albertsmeiers, Hans Lederhuber, Markus Loffler, Stephen Tabiri, Symeon Metallidis, Georgios Tsoulfas, Maria Aguilera Lorena, Gustavo Grecinos, Tamas Mersich, Daniel Wettstein, Dhruv Ghosh, Gabriele Kembuan, Peiman Brouk, Mohammad Khosravi, Masoud Mozafari, Ahmed Adil, Helen M Mohan, Oded Zmora, Marco Fiore, Gaetano Gallo, Francesco Pata, Gianluca Pellino, Sohei Satoi, Faris Ayasra, Mohammad Chaar, Ildar R Fakhradiyev, Mohammad Jamal, Aiste Gulla, April Roslani, Laura Martinez, Antonio Ramos De La Medina, Oumaima Outani, Pascal Jonker, Schelto Kruijff, Milou Noltes, Pieter Steinkamp, Willemijn van der Plas, Adesoji Ademuyiwa, Babatunde Osinaike, Justina Seyiolajide, Emmanuel Williams, Sofija Pejkova, Knut Magne Augestad, Kjetil Soreide, Zainab Al Balushi, Ahmad Qureshi, Mustafa Abu Mohsen Daraghmeh, Sadi Abukhalaf, Moises Cukier, Hugo Gomez, Sebastian Shu, Ximena Vasquez, Marie Dione Parreno-Sacdalan, Piotr Major, Jose Azevedo, Miguel Cunha, Irene Santos, Ahmad Zarour, Eduard-Alexandru Bonci, Ionut Negoi, Sergey Efetov, Andrey Litvin, Faustin Ntirenganya, Ehab AlAmeer, Dejan Radenkovic, Frederick Koh Hong Xiang, Chew Min Hoe, James Ngu Chi Yong, Rachel Moore, Ncamsile Nhlabathi, Ruth Blanco Colino, Ana Minaya Bravo, Umesh Jayarajah, Dakshitha Wickramasinghe, Mohammed Elmujtaba, William Jebril, Martin Rutegard, Malin Sund, Arda Isik, Sezai Leventoglu, Ruth Benson, Ed Caruna, Sohini Chakrabortee, Andreas Demetriades, Anant Desai, Thomas D Drake, John G Edwards, Jonathan P Evans, Samuel Ford, Christina Fotopoulou, Ewen Griffiths, Peter Hutchinson, Michael D Jenkinson, Tabassum Khan, Stephen Knight, Angelos Kolias, Elaine Leung, Siobhan McKay, Lisa Norman, Riinu Ots, Vidya Raghavan, Keith Roberts, Andrew Schache, Richard Shaw, Katie Shaw, Neil Smart, Grant Stewart, Sudha Sundar, Dale Vimalchandran, Naomi Wright, Sattar Alshryda, Osaid Alser, Kerry Breen, Ian Ganly, Haytham Kaafarani, Brittany Kendall, Hassan Mashbari, Hamza Al Naggar, I Dajti, J Valenzuela, LA Boccalatte, NA Gemelli, DE Smith, NN Dudi-Venkata, HM Kroon, T Sammour, M Roberts, D Mitchell, K Lah, A Pearce, A Morton, AC Dawson, A Drane, C Sharpin, RM Nataraja, M Pacilli, DRA Cox, V Muralidharan, GE Riddiough, EM Clarke, W Jamel, KR Qin, P Pockney, D Cope, N Egoroff, N Lott, S Putnis, Z Ang, M Mitteregger, S Uranitsch, M Stiegler, G Seitinger, F Aigner, DB Lumenta, SP Nischwitz, E Richtig, M Pau, P Srekl-Filzmaier, N Eibinger, B Michelitsch, M Fediuk, A Papinutti, G Seidel, J Kahn, TU Cohnert, F Messner, D Oefner, J Presl, M Varga, M Weitzendorfer, K Emmanuel, AD Binder, M Zimmermann, S Holawe, E Nkenke, C Grimm, M Kranawetter, A Rahman Mitul, N Islam, S Karim, N Komen, S De Robels, E Ang, H De Praetere, T Tollens, G Schols, C Smets, L Haenen, J Quintens, K Van Belle, GH Van Ramshorst, P Pattyn, L Desender, T Martens, D Van de Putte, P Lerut, A Grimonprez, M Janssen, G De Smul, P Wallaert, J Van den Eynde, W Oosterlinck, R Van den Eynde, A Sermon, A Boeckxstaens, A Cordonnier, J De Coster, J Jaekers, C Politis, M Miserez, N Duchateau, C De Gheldere, N Flamey, A Christiano, B Guidi, AL Minussi, S Castro, W Okoba, FHR Maldonado, P Oliveira, T Baldasso, L Santos, GMA Gomes, IL Buarque, L Pol-Fachin, TS Bezerra, A Barros, AMR da Silva, ALS Leite, DWA Silvestre, CC Ferro, MS Araujo, LM Lopes, PD Damasceno, DHS Araujo, G Laporte, MC Salem, MAC Guimaraes-Filho, L Nacif, RLG Flumignan, LCU Nakano, DAB Kuramoto, ALS Aidar, MR Pereda, RM Correia, BC Santos, AA Carvalho, JE Amorim, HJ Guedes Neto, LL Areias, AF Sousa, CDQ Flumignan, WG Lustre, DH Moreno, N Barros Jr, JCC Baptista-Silva, LL Matos, LP Kowaski, MA Kulcsar, KS Nunes, MF Teixeira, RL Nunes, TR Ijichi, NJ Kim, A Marreiro, B Mueller, J Barakat Awada, G Baiocchi, LP Kowalski, JG Vartanian, FB Makdissi, S Aguiar Jr, N Marques, GB Carvalho, TMDM Marques, EA Abdallah, CE Zurstrassen, JL Gross, SC Zequi, BT Goncalves, SS Santos, JP Duprat, FJF Coimbra, R Cicco, F Takeda, I Cecconello, U Ribeiro Jr, A Gatti, R Oliva, C Nardi, M Slavchev, B Atanasov, N Belev, A Dell, D Bigam, K Dajani, S Al Riyami, J Martin, D Cheng, H Yang, A Fayad, FM Carrier, E Amzallag, J Desroches, M Ruel, NG Caminsky, M Boutros, J Moon, EG Wong, T Vanounou, J Pelletier, S Wong, E Girsowicz, J Bayne, D Obrand, H Gill, O Steinmetz, K MacKenzie, M Lukaszewski, G Jamjoum, P Richebe, O Verdonck, S Discepola, N Godin, M Idrissi, D Briatico, S Sharma, G Talwar, K Bailey, V Lecluyse, G Cote, S Demyttenaere, R Garfinkle, A Kouyoumdjian, S Dumitra, K Khwaja, L Luo, G Berry, AS Liberman, S Schmid, J Spicer, M Al Farsi, J Abou-Khalil, E Couture, S Mohammadi, H Tremblay, N Gagne, A Bergeron, AF Turgeon, O Costerousse, D Bellemare, C Babin, C Blier, ML Wood, A Persad, G Groot, H Pham, F D'Aragon, E Carbonneau, M Bouchard, M Masse, F Pesant, J Heroux, P Karanicolas, J Hallet, A Nadler, A Nathens, M Ko, A Brar, K Mayson, B Kidane, S Srinathan, M Escudero, JT Reyes, MM Modolo, P Ramirez Nieto, R Sepulveda, A Bolbaran, A Molero, I Ruiz, GP Reyes, R Salas, C Suazo, R Munoz, E Grasset, M Inzunza, N Besser, MJ Irarrazaval, C Jarry, F Bellolio, CA Romero Manqui, M Ruiz Esquide, T Fuentes, J Campos, CJ Perez Rivera, PA Cabrera, RE Pinilla, O Guevara, LJ Jimenez Ramirez, BG Velasquez Cuasquen, DR Herrera Mora, A Bonilla, S Diaz, E Manrique, H Facundo, JL Velez Bernal, J Angel, M Garcia, L Guzman, C Lehmann, S Cervera, LM Trujillo Sanchez, R Guevara, D Valbuena, L Suarez, G Jimenez, A Velandia, J Vargas, J Espinosa, S Rey, J Mendoza Quevedo, JA Calvache
To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

History

Journal

BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY

Volume

108

Pagination

1274-1292

Location

England

ISSN

0007-1323

eISSN

1365-2168

Language

English

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Issue

11

Publisher

OXFORD UNIV PRESS