Deakin University
Browse

Are Indian stock returns predictable?

Version 2 2024-06-18, 05:37
Version 1 2015-01-01, 00:00
report
posted on 2024-06-18, 05:37 authored by D Bannigidadmath, PK Narayan
In this paper we show that Indian stock returns, based on industry portfolios, portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and on size, are predictable. While we discover that this predictability holds both in in-sample and out-of-sample tests, predictability is not homogenous. Some predictors are important than others and some industries and portfolios of stocks are more predictable and, therefore, more profitable than others. We also discover that a mean combination forecast approach delivers significant out-of-sample performance. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests.

History

Language

eng

Notes

School working paper (Deakin University. School of Accounting, Economics and Finance) ; 2015/07 In this paper we show that Indian stock returns, based on industry portfolios, portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and on size, are predictable. While we discover that this predictability holds both in in-sample and out-of-sample tests, predictability is not homogenous. Some predictors are important than others and some industries and portfolios of stocks are more predictable and, therefore, more profitable than others. We also discover that a mean combination forecast approach delivers significant out-of-sample performance. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests.

Publication classification

CN.1 Other journal article

Copyright notice

2015, The Authors

Pagination

1-124

Publisher

Deakin University, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance

Place of publication

Geelong, Vic.

Series

SChool Working Paper - Financial Econometrics Series ; SWP 2015/07

Usage metrics

    Research Publications

    Categories

    No categories selected

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC