Understanding the Australian Illicit Nicotine Market 2025 – Report 1: Market Size and Consumer Demographics
Understanding the Australian Illicit Nicotine Market 2025 – Report 1: Market Size and Consumer Demographics
Funding
Research into the Nicotine Black Market in Australia | Funder: Department of Home Affairs | Grant ID: PRN0022909
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1-28Open access
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engResearch statement
Background This research intervenes in a growing field concerned with the unintended consequences of prohibition-oriented drug policy. Although driven by public health concerns, Australia’s approach to nicotine control has increasingly focused on restricting legal supply through bans and taxation. This has diverted supply into a large and expanding illicit market, accompanied by additional harms such as organised crime and systemic violence. The extent of these unintended consequences is not sufficiently understood. This study addresses that gap by quantifying key features of the national nicotine market, including its size, structure, and consumer demographics. Contribution This research delivers the first large-scale, nationally representative estimate of Australia’s nicotine market, with a particular focus on its illicit component. Drawing on a sample of over 4,000 recent nicotine users and using advanced weighting and classification methods, the report generates novel insights into purchasing behaviours, market composition, and expenditure patterns. It combines rigorous empirical analysis with original market modelling to assess the scale and structure of the rapidly expanding illicit nicotine market and to inform understanding of the unintended consequences of current regulatory settings. Significance This research constitutes a nationally significant contribution to the study of illicit markets and drug policy. It provides the first comprehensive, data-driven estimate of the size and structure of Australia’s illicit nicotine market, addressing a major gap in existing scholarship. Commissioned by the Department of Home Affairs, the report was delivered directly to the Illicit Tobacco and E-Cigarette Commissioner, who reports to the Minister for Health. Led by a multidisciplinary team with expertise in criminology and public health, its findings have informed confidential briefings and high-level policy discussions on regulatory and enforcement strategies.Publication classification
A6 Research report/technical paperEditor/Contributor(s)
Hahn M, Jegasothy E, Markham F, Bright DPublisher
Deakin UniversityPlace of publication
Geelong, Vic.Usage metrics
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