Changing perception of average person's risk does not suffice to change perception of comparative risk
Aucote, Helen M. and Gold, Ron S. 2008, Changing perception of average person's risk does not suffice to change perception of comparative risk, Psychology, health & medicine, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 461-470, doi: 10.1080/13548500701694227.
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Changing perception of average person's risk does not suffice to change perception of comparative risk
The direct method of assessing “unrealistic optimism” employs a question of the form, “Compared with the average person, what is the chance that event X will occur to you?” It has been proposed that when individuals construct their responses to this question (direct-estimates) they focus much more strongly on estimates of their own risk (self-estimates) than on estimates of the average person's risk (other-estimates). A challenge to this proposal comes from findings that interventions that alter other-estimates also change direct-estimates. Employing a novel intervention technique, we tested the possibility that such interventions may indirectly also change self-estimates and that this is what accounts for their effect on direct-estimates. Study 1 (n = 58) showed that an intervention which was designed to (and did) affect other-estimates also affected self-estimates, while Study 2 (n = 101) showed that it affected direct-estimates. Study 3 (n = 79) confirmed that we could modify the intervention so as to maintain the effect on other-estimates, but eliminate that on self-estimates. Study 4 (n = 112) demonstrated that when this was done, there was no longer any effect on direct-estimates. The findings are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed largely just out of self-estimates. Implications for heath education programs are discussed.
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