Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020 Capewell, Simon, Allender, Steven, Critchley, Julia, Lloyd-Williams, Ffion, O'Flaherty, Martin, Rayner, Mike and Scarborough, Peter 2009, Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020, Cardio & Vascular Coalition and the British Heart Foundation, London, England. Attached Files Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads Title Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020 Alternative title Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020 : a research report for the Cardio & Vascular Coalition and the British Heart Foundation Author(s) Capewell, Simon Allender, Steven orcid.org/0000-0002-4842-3294 Critchley, Julia Lloyd-Williams, Ffion O'Flaherty, Martin Rayner, Mike Scarborough, Peter Publication date 2009 Total pages 112 p. Publisher Cardio & Vascular Coalition and the British Heart Foundation Place of Publication London, England Summary This new research report demonstrates the scale of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) - shown to be large, costly, and increasing. Whilst mortality from CVD has fallen, an increasing population over the next decade will create further demands on services as the actual numbers of people living with CVD climb higher. Notes CONTENTS -- FOREWORD 2 -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 9 -- PREFACE 10 1. THE BURDEN OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (CVD) IN THE UK 12 • CVD Mortality 12 • CVD Definitions 14 • Diagnoses of CVD 19 • Premature Mortality 20 • Morbidity 21 • CVD Prevalence 23 • CVD Treatment Trends 27 • Economic Costs of CVD 29 • International Comparisons 30 2. THE COMPLEXITY OF THE CVD BURDEN 31 • Risk Factors for CVD 31 • Prevention 34 • Social Inequalities 36 • Ethnic Inequalities 36 • National & Regional Inequalities 37 3. ESTIMATING THE CHANGING BURDEN OF CVD: 2010 TO 2020 40 • Population Estimates 40 • Gender Specific Population Changes 40 • Recent Trends in Age Specific Rates 42 • Projections to 2020 43 4. THE CHALLENGE OF PREDICTING & MINIMISING THE FUTURE CVD BURDEN 51 • Introduction to CVD modelling 51 • Systematic Review of Available CVD Models 52 • Main CHD Models 59 • Main Stroke Models 62 • Other Relevant Work Currently Taking Place 69 • Using CVD Policy Models to Address Challenging Policy Issues 78 • What Needs to be Included in a Large-scale Modelling Exercise 78 • Desirable Interventions and Scenarios to Model 85 • Delivering a Model to Predict Future CVD Burden 87 • Dissemination of Results via heartstats.org 89 RECOMMENDATIONS 90 -- THE AUTHORS 91 -- REFERENCES 94 -- APPENDICES 106 -- • Glossary 106 -- • Useful Websites 112 Language eng Field of Research 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified Socio Economic Objective 970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences HERDC Research category A4 Major research monograph HERDC collection year 2009 Copyright notice ©2008, British Heart Foundation Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30020504 Document type: Book Collections: Faculty of Health Public Health Research, Evaluation, and Policy Cluster Related Links Link Description Connect to published version Go to link with your DU access privileges     Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved. Versions Version Filter Type Tue, 13 Oct 2009, 15:47:26 EST Mon, 26 Oct 2009, 11:36:35 EST Mon, 26 Oct 2009, 11:37:39 EST Mon, 26 Oct 2009, 11:41:14 EST Mon, 26 Oct 2009, 11:45:38 EST Thu, 15 May 2014, 10:36:14 EST Tue, 06 Sep 2016, 13:34:25 EST Tue, 05 Dec 2017, 09:04:01 EST Fri, 31 Aug 2018, 11:58:00 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 0 times in TR Web of Science Cited 0 times in Scopus Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 1901 Abstract Views, 555 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Tue, 13 Oct 2009, 15:47:26 EST