The consequences of climate-driven stop-over sites changes on migration schedules and fitness of Arctic geese

Bauer, Silke, van Dinther, Martijn, Høgda, Kjell-Arild, Klaassen, Marcel and Madsen, Jesper 2008, The consequences of climate-driven stop-over sites changes on migration schedules and fitness of Arctic geese, Journal of animal ecology, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 654-660, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01381.x.

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Title The consequences of climate-driven stop-over sites changes on migration schedules and fitness of Arctic geese
Author(s) Bauer, Silke
van Dinther, Martijn
Høgda, Kjell-Arild
Klaassen, MarcelORCID iD for Klaassen, Marcel
Madsen, Jesper
Journal name Journal of animal ecology
Volume number 77
Issue number 4
Start page 654
End page 660
Total pages 7
Publisher Wiley
Place of publication Oxford, England
Publication date 2008-07
ISSN 0021-8790
Keyword(s) Anser brachyrhynchus
behaviour-based model
onset of spring
stochastic-dynamic programming
Summary 1. How climatic changes affect migratory birds remains difficult to predict because birds use multiple sites in a highly interdependent manner. A better understanding of how conditions along the flyway affect migration and ultimately fitness is of paramount interest.

2. Therefore, we developed a stochastic dynamic model to generate spatially and temporally explicit predictions of stop-over site use. For each site, we varied energy expenditure, onset of spring, intake rate and day-to-day stochasticity independently. We parameterized the model for the migration of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus from its wintering grounds in Western Europe to its breeding grounds on Arctic Svalbard.

3. Model results suggested that the birds follow a risk-averse strategy by avoiding sites with comparatively high energy expenditure or stochasticity levels in favour of sites with highly predictable food supply and low expenditure. Furthermore, the onset of spring on the stop-over sites had the most pronounced effect on staging times while intake rates had surprisingly little effect.

4. Subsequently, using empirical data, we tested whether observed changes in the onset of spring along the flyway explain the observed changes in migration schedules of pink-footed geese from 1990 to 2004. Model predictions generally agreed well with empirically observed migration patterns, with geese leaving the wintering grounds earlier while considerably extending their staging times in Norway.
Language eng
DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01381.x
Field of Research 060201 Behavioural Ecology
Socio Economic Objective 970106 Expanding Knowledge in the Biological Sciences
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2008, The Authors
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