The accuracy of housing forecasting in Australia Mills, Anthony, Harris, David and Skitmore, Martin 2003, The accuracy of housing forecasting in Australia, Engineering, construction and architectural management, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 245-253, doi: 10.1108/09699980310489951. Attached Files Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads mills-theaccuracy-post-2003.pdf Author's post print application/pdf 759.51KB 157 Title The accuracy of housing forecasting in Australia Author(s) Mills, Anthony orcid.org/0000-0002-2223-1550 Harris, David Skitmore, Martin Journal name Engineering, construction and architectural management Volume number 10 Issue number 4 Start page 245 End page 253 Total pages 9 Publisher Emerald Group Publishing Place of publication Bingley, England Publication date 2003 ISSN 0969-9988 1365-232X Keyword(s) Australia building services construction industry forecasting housing Summary Forecasting is an integral part of all business planning, and forecasting the outlook for housing is of interest to many firms in the housing construction sector. This research measures the performance of a number of industry forecasting bodies; this is done to provide users with an indicator of the value of housing forecasting undertaken in Australia. The accuracy of housing commencement forecasts of three Australian organisations – the Housing Industry Association (HIA), the Indicative Planning Council for the Housing Industry (IPC) and BIS-Shrapnel – is examined through the empirical analysis of their published forecasts supplemented by qualitative data in the form of opinions elicited from several industry “experts” employed in these organisations. Forecasting performance was determined by comparing the housing commencement forecast with the actual data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on an ex-post basis. Although the forecasts cover different time periods, the level of accuracy is similar, at around 11-13 per cent for four-quarter-ahead forecasts. In addition, national forecasts are more accurate than forecasts for individual states. This is the first research that has investigated the accuracy of both private and public sector forecasting of housing construction in Australia. This allows users of the information to better understand the performance of various forecasting organisations. Notes Reproduced with the kind permission of the copyright owner. Language eng DOI 10.1108/09699980310489951 Field of Research 120503 Housing Markets, Development, Management Socio Economic Objective 970112 Expanding Knowledge in Built Environment and Design HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal Copyright notice ©2003, MCB UP Free to Read? Yes Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30037114 Document type: Journal Article Collections: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment School of Architecture and Built Environment Open Access Collection Related Links Link Description Connect to published version (restricted access) Go to link with your DU access privileges     Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved. Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au. Versions Version Filter Type Fri, 14 Oct 2011, 09:31:20 EST Tue, 18 Oct 2011, 09:28:00 EST Tue, 18 Oct 2011, 09:29:21 EST Thu, 07 Jun 2012, 12:13:40 EST Sat, 17 Jun 2017, 03:07:39 EST Tue, 05 Dec 2017, 10:53:17 EST Fri, 07 Sep 2018, 15:32:25 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 0 times in TR Web of Science Cited 2 times in Scopus Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 674 Abstract Views, 160 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Fri, 14 Oct 2011, 09:31:20 EST