Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)

Ong, Eng Kok, Taylor, Philip E. and Knox, Robert Bruce 1997, Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia), Aerobiologia, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 43-48, doi: 10.1007/BF02694790.

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Title Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)
Author(s) Ong, Eng Kok
Taylor, Philip E.ORCID iD for Taylor, Philip E.
Knox, Robert Bruce
Journal name Aerobiologia
Volume number 13
Issue number 1
Start page 43
End page 48
Total pages 6
Publisher Springer Netherlands
Place of publication Dordrecht , The Netherlands
Publication date 1997-03
ISSN 0393-5965
Keyword(s) aerobiology
grass pollen
predictive model
pollen season
Summary In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.
Language eng
DOI 10.1007/BF02694790
Field of Research 059999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
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